'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
India is deeply concerned over the spike in the price of oil due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and it is "breaking our back," External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said. Addressing a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after holding bilateral talks, Jaishankar on Tuesday said there is a very deep concern among developing countries about how their energy needs are addressed. Speaking about the Ukraine war, he said: "We have taken the position privately, publicly, confidentially and consistently that this conflict is not in anybody's interest."
Brave statements such as we will continue to be the fastest growing large country are of no consolation, because the direction of trade also determines the flow of investment, points out M Govinda Rao.
'The US values its relationship with India and under the strong leadership of President Donald J Trump and Prime Minister Modi, I am optimistic about the days ahead for both of our nations.'
Among Sensex shares, Sun Pharmaceutical, Tata Steel, Trent, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports, Titan, BEL, and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards. However, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti Suzuki India, ITC, Tata Consultancy Services and UltraTech Cement were the gainers.
Indication of a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut may trigger optimism in the domestic equity market, with investors' attention shifting to the looming deadline for additional US tariffs on Indian goods in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said.
This might help explain why our global outreach has received such a tepid response. We have chosen to be transactional with the world, as our UN votes reveal, points out Aakar Patel.
Zelenskyy, in a social media post, said Ukraine appreciates India's dedication to "peace and dialogue".
Chinese import tariffs have unwittingly come to India's assistance to help boost imports of US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at rates cheaper than what it pays for supplies from West Asia, according to industry sources and shipping data.
Strategic affairs experts express concern over US President Donald Trump's tariffs on India, his 'bullying tactics,' and increasing attempts to hyphenate New Delhi with Islamabad, signaling a potential shift in the bilateral relationship.
'The current strain in the relationship is serious and likely to be long lasting.' 'Even if Trump suddenly changes his attitude toward India -- which he is entirely capable of doing -- it is unlikely that New Delhi will be able to pick up the pieces and respond as if nothing has happened.'
India is expected to ramp up its purchase of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the coming months following discussions between the two countries on the sidelines of the ongoing COP28 summit in Dubai, multiple sources in the know said. The UAE has historically been India's third-largest source of crude. It has suffered the largest drop in shipments since Indian refiners began to binge on Russian crude in 2022.
India's export of fuels like diesel to the European Union jumped 58 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024, with a bulk of them likely coming from refining discounted Russian oil, according to a monthly tracker report. The EU/G7 countries in December 2022 introduced a price cap and an embargo on the imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to cripple Kremlin's revenue and create a vacuum in its funding for the invasion of Ukraine.
India and the US have collaborated through the past one month on launching a powerful satellite; are commencing joint production of GE Aerospace's F414 jet engines in India; India is participating in a massive three week-long military exercise in the Western Pacific, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Trump couldn't care less anymore about the Israeli demand for Iran's 'de-nuclearisation' and 'de-militarisation.' Trump pins hopes on a grand bargain with Iran as a partner in America First, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India would neither succumb to the Americans on issues of national security, such as its defence ties with Russia, nor cede ground on its domestic interests in the agriculture and dairy sectors.
Russian energy giant Rosneft has appointed a former Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) director to its board in signs it may be looking at boosting trade links with India. G K Satish, who retired as director for business development at IOC in 2021, is one of the three new faces appointed to the 11-strong board of directors of Rosneft, according to a statement issued by the Russian firm. Satish, 62, is the first Indian to be appointed to the board of Rosneft.
'New Delhi is not naive about its foreign policy choices.'
Tata Steel, Maruti, Tata Motors, Infosys, Bharti Airtel and Tech Mahindra were also among the laggards. However, Trent, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Reliance Industries were the gainers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday called on President Droupadi Murmu separately within hours at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's top oil firm, has bought as much as 3 million barrels of crude oil that Russia had offered at steep discount to prevailing international rates, sources said. The purchase, made through a trader, is the first since Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine that brought international pressure for isolating Putin administration. Sources aware of the matter said IOC bought Urals crude for May delivery at a discount of $20-25 a barrel to dated Brent.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, marking his first visit in over seven years. The visit signals a potential improvement in India-China relations after recent tensions.
Investors lost Rs 24.69 lakh crore in market valuation in the last four days of severe drubbing in the equity market. Spike in global crude prices, unabated foreign fund outflows, a strong US jobs data diminishing early rate cut expectations, and the rupee logging its steepest single-day fall in nearly two years dampened investors' sentiment.
"... It's time to stop this madness. It's time to halt the killing. It's time to end the senseless war. If you want to end wars, you have to talk to both sides," Trump said.
Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka discussed US tariffs on Indian goods with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, noting that "somebody is not very happy with you." The discussion occurred during Rabuka's visit to India to strengthen ties.
Chinese envoy Xu Feihong stated that China opposes the US imposing tariffs on India, amidst a thaw in Sino-India relations and concerns over global trade disruptions.
A few years ago, when top officials of Indian state-run refiners went to Dubai to negotiate a crude oil supply contract, a senior official from state-owned Saudi Aramco told them, "We can negotiate on anything, but I am the last man standing for you. "Nobody can offer the range of crudes we do with certainty," an official who was part of the negotiating team recalls. Perhaps that explains why Saudi Arabia is less concerned about losing its place as India's premier oil supplier to an upstart like Russia, which emerged from nowhere to become India's biggest crude oil supplier in September and October.
The deal fell through over unresolved disagreements over contentious issues, mainly on agriculture and automotive sector tariffs.
Since May 10, when Trump announced on social media that India and Pakistan had agreed to a "full and immediate" ceasefire after a "long night" of talks mediated by Washington, he has repeated his claim on several occasions.
'What the Americans want is to destabilise Iran. For destabilising Iran, you need access. 'One access is through Iraq. The other access is through Pakistan.'
India has cautioned against 'double standards' regarding its energy procurement from Russia, asserting that it is based on national interests and market dynamics, following a threat of secondary sanctions from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
'As one former Indian diplomat put it to me, Delhi has access to the White House, but Islamabad has access to Mar-a-Lago.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday invited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to visit India and the Ukrainian leader said he would be happy to travel to the 'great' country.
India may see a structural shift in supplies of crude oil with Russia emerging as a key source of fuels, a development that reduces New Delhi's dependence on West Asian oil, gives Indian refiners better bargaining power with price-setter Saudi Arabia, and improves overall energy security. The unexpected surge in supplies of Russian crude in the last few months, unthinkable until the war in Ukraine, may also deliver other unforeseen gains such as boosting exports of refined fuels to Europe, which historically has counted on Russian shipments. India has jumped on to the bandwagon of opportunistic buying of Russian crude but if calibrated carefully, Urals crude can be a long-term asset for India refiners.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
According to Jaishankar, the problem is that the Russian authorities maintain that these Indian nationals entered into contracts for services with the Russian army.
Indian imports of Russian oil plunged by a record in August month-on-month (M-o-M) as discounts on the fuel shrank in tandem with rising Brent oil prices. Higher crude prices will drive inflation or hurt earnings at oil companies and India's fiscal position if such spikes are not passed on to consumers. Indian purchases of Russian crude declined by around 24 per cent in August from July to the lowest level since January, with refiners expecting volumes to drop further amid rising rates of Russian benchmark Urals grade, substantial stocks at refiners, and planned maintenance at Indian refineries, according to ship tracking data and industry officials.
'Just as we cannot surrender the interests of our farmers and dairy industry, Trump is also looking for markets for the produce of the farmers in the Midwest, which are his support base.'
By threatening to punish India with high tariff, Trump is actually planting a tantalising thought in the Indian mind that the Modi government should suitably 'incentivise' him, explains Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has given its approval to two Russian banks for opening special vostro account for rupee trade. Sberbank, JSC VTB - the largest and second largest bank of Russia - are the first foreign lenders to receive this approval after the central bank announced the norms on INR trade in July. Both lenders have branch presence in India. Earlier this month, state-run UCO Bank received the RBI's approval to open a special Vostro account with Gazprombank of Russia. While the Kolkata-based lender is in the process of opening the account, the bank has received requests from various foreign lenders for opening such an account.
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